Economist. Founder of arq decisions. Affiliate of the Nieman Foundation at Harvard University, 2026–27.
I study how organizations decide under uncertainty, and I build tools that help them decide.
Find the question that matters, build the design that answers it, and translate the results into decisions.
With arq decisions, I build forecasting platforms and decision support for organizations. As a researcher, I study expectations, forecasting and how to measure performance.
How organizations form expectations, judge and measure, and what AI changes about it.
ToolsPythonRStataSQLLaTeXoTree
LanguagesGerman (native), English (fluent)
Each project has its own page.
With clear questions, arq decisions helps organizations shape their future successfully.
Forecasting tool
A forecasting tool for the 2026 US midterm elections that follows how the odds of four scenarios move.
DetailsResearch software
Video chat for online experiments: a free add-on for oTree that lets participants in online group experiments talk face to face.
DetailsFrom research to an app
Measuring performance in football by what a goal or a chance is worth in the state of the game, with expected goals (xG). The goal is an app.
Details16 papers in 4 areas Work in progress 5 · Working papers 3 · Publications 6 · Other writing 1 · Dissertation 1
Draft2026
When firms cannot put probabilities on the consequences of a shock, they may stop quantifying their forecasts instead of lowering them. A model, and a test on US annual reports around COVID-19, the war in Ukraine and the 2025 tariffs, contrasted with German firms that must publish forecasts by law.
On research.nikwall.de
Draft2026
Should organizations weight forecasters by their track record or take the simple average? A model and 5,898 forecasts by 177 forecasters show that with small crowds and short records, the simple average is hard to beat.
On research.nikwall.de
Working paper2022
A representative survey of German municipalities. Structured management varies widely, and municipalities that use more of it are more attractive to residents and firms.
On research.nikwall.deTwo streams that tell my story, newest first
Experience2026–2027
Harvard University, Cambridge, MA
A year to search for the critical questions, with courses in astronomy, at Harvard Business School, at MIT's School of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences and at Harvard Kennedy School.
Alongside Founder and Managing Director
Careersince 2023
arq decisions GmbH, Hamburg
With clear questions, arq decisions helps organizations shape their future successfully.
Alongside Affiliate, Nieman Foundation at Harvard
Career2022–2024
University of Hamburg
Career2019–2022
University of Hamburg
With Gerd Muehlheusser, in a DFG project on decision-making in groups.
Experience2018
University of Melbourne
Host: John de New. Impressed by what is possible when business, politics and research work hand in hand, keen to act and to experiment.
Alongside Research associate (doctoral researcher)
Career2014–2019
University of Hamburg
With Gerd Muehlheusser. My first teaching: explaining is not the same as understanding. My first non-standard study: a pop-up lab, dice and mobile voting booths on the campus of the University of Regensburg.
Alongside Research stay, Melbourne Institute PhD in Economics, summa cum laude
Experience2014–2019
University of Hamburg
Dissertation: Essays in Organizational Economics. Advisor: Gerd Muehlheusser.
Essays in Organizational EconomicsDissertation, 2019
Gender Differences in HonestyJournal article, 2015
The Contribution of Managers to Organizational SuccessJournal article, 2018Alongside Research associate (doctoral researcher)
Experience2013
University of Edinburgh
Corporate finance will forever go with bagpipes and rugby.
Alongside Student assistant, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI)
Experience2011–2013
University of Hamburg
With real mathematics, much more becomes possible. Most formative: the theory of the firm and the question why firms exist, and how social networks can be modelled. Thesis, 2013: how to separate the performance of a manager from that of the firm.
Alongside Student assistant, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI)
Career2010
Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI)
Gathering data from the back corners for important findings: natural disasters in Southeast Asia, or court files from the attic of the Wandsbek district court.
Alongside Semester in the Scottish Graduate Programme in Economics M.Sc. in Economics, University of Hamburg B.Sc. in Economics, University of Hamburg
Career2008
National-Bank, Essen
Working on an indicator of country risk. Too little, too late. But the love of big numbers and how they connect was there.
Experience2008–2011
University of Hamburg
Away from the big numbers, I was fascinated by strategy: breaking markets and firms down into strategic interactions (industrial organization), studying them with rigorous econometrics, and creating knowledge with experiments where none exists yet. Thesis, 2011: incentive effects in hierarchies.
Alongside Student assistant, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI)
Experience2008
Annette-von-Droste-Hülshoff-Gymnasium, Münster
Alongside Intern, National-Bank Intern, RWI Intern in management, Borussia Dortmund
Career2006
RWI, Essen
For the first time, I turned a narrative into a research question: reservation wages and unemployment. An empirical study with the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
Career2005
Borussia Dortmund, and the local organizing committee of the 2006 FIFA World Cup in Dortmund
Behind 90 minutes of magic are seven days of hard work. With the video analysts, I got to know football differently, and Thierry Henry as the benchmark.
Expert reports, workshops, analyses and projects are invoiced through arq decisions.