From research to an app
Counting What Counts
Measuring performance in football by what a goal or a chance is worth in the state of the game, with expected goals (xG). The goal is an app.
What it is
Goal tallies treat every goal alike. Under the usual rule a win earns 3 points, a draw 1 and a loss 0, so the same goal can add two points, one or none, depending on the score. The research behind this project values goals by the points they add, and chances by their expected goals (xG) in the state of the game.
Research
- Counting What Counts: Misaligned Performance Measures, State-Dependent Value, and the Prediction of Future PerformanceDraft, 2026. Adding up output misleads when a unit of output is worth more in some states than in others. A framework for aligned performance measures, tested on football data; the first of three papers.